Quant trading from zero, ADHD edition
My brain wants quant to be a slot machine, which is the exact wrong instinct. So before any math: bury the get-rich fantasy, trade paper money only, and treat the whole thing as probability and risk instead of fortune-telling.
A captured spark. Unverified, unpolished, possibly wrong.
I want to learn quant trading, and I need to be honest about why that’s a landmine for a brain like mine. Money moving on a screen, instant feedback, the fantasy of solving the market: that’s not education, that’s a slot machine with a LaTeX skin. It’s the same hook that quietly turned my chess into a bullet habit where every move is a guess. Left alone, my brain won’t study quant. It’ll gamble and call it research.
So step one isn’t math. Step one is defusing that, because if every rep arrives with a dopamine spike I’ll chase the spike straight past the lesson.
- Bury the get-rich fantasy first. I am not beating Citadel. People with PhDs, colocation, and fiber measured in microseconds are sitting on the other side of every trade I’d place. The second I stop pretending the goal is profit, the real prize shows up: probability, risk, and how adversarial systems actually behave. That pays out in everything else I do.
- Paper money only. Same move as setting a billing alarm before you ever touch a cloud account: defuse the money-fear up front so it can’t hijack the learning. Real stakes weld a jolt of dopamine to every tick, and my brain will follow that jolt off a cliff. Take the money out and what’s left is the part I actually came for.
- Expected value before charts. Not indicators, not candlestick astrology. EV, variance, and the brutal fact that a positive-edge bet can still ruin you if you size it like an idiot. Most of trading is betting math in a suit, and I already shook hands with that math in the Kelly note.
- Backtest something dumb and let it embarrass you. A moving-average crossover in a notebook. It’ll look like a money printer on past data and faceplant the instant it meets a live market. Feeling overfitting bite my own code teaches more than any tutorial. The lesson was never the strategy. It’s how cheaply I fool myself.
- One book. One path. No tabs. The ADHD death-spiral here is hoarding twelve resources and finishing zero. Pick one. Ride it into the ground.
The frame under all of it: the prize isn’t predicting the market, it’s a small edge run enough times to survive yourself. Slow, unglamorous, the exact opposite of what my brain is begging for. Which, going by the chessboard and the HTB grind, is usually the tell that I’m finally facing the right direction. On the record in public, fantasy filed right next to reality where I can watch which one wins.
Paths that lead here
- Quant isn't prediction, it's edge and survival · Two ideas hold up the whole field, and neither is a crystal ball: a tiny statistical edge run thousands of times, and not blowing up before it pays. The model I'm using so I stop treating the market like a fortune to be told.
Where this note points
- An openings trainer for a vibe-based brain · Queen's Gambit got me playing, ADHD got me playing bullet, and bullet taught me to move on vibes. I'm 1700 rapid, 1500 blitz, and stuck. So I'm building a web app to drill chess openings the way I'd drill anything else: turn the lookup into a reflex.
- Kelly criterion for bug hunting? · A half-formed hunch: allocating research time across targets is a bankroll problem, and Kelly might be the right lens.
- Quant isn't prediction, it's edge and survival · Two ideas hold up the whole field, and neither is a crystal ball: a tiny statistical edge run thousands of times, and not blowing up before it pays. The model I'm using so I stop treating the market like a fortune to be told.
- The ADHD-HTB playbook: hacking the brain that hacks the box · Ten friction-bypassing study methods for grinding HackTheBox with an ADHD brain, plus the two of them I turned into real tools: a Swipe-to-Pwn Anki deck and an htb-operator shell.
- Learning in public · The operating philosophy of this whole garden: publish the process, not just the conclusions.
More from these beds
- Why I reread the same sentence three times · Reading a dense paragraph four times before it sticks felt like a hardware defect. It mostly isn't. Processing speed is genetic at the baseline but dynamic in the moment, more like bandwidth than a CPU clock, and rereading is usually a working-memory leak you can plug.
- The Unlived Life · Cybersecurity overwhelm has a weird side effect: it sends me hunting for whether the work is worth it, and the trail always dead-ends at the same fact. The clock runs out. A note on Jung's unlived life, finitude, and choosing a life I can be proud of over a happy one.
- Metacognition, Eileen Gu, and the Fear of Going Public · The thing elite performers and good thinkers share is not raw talent; it is metacognition, the skill of watching your own mind. Here is what it is, why putting yourself out there feels so irreversible, and why the spotlight effect means it matters less than you think.
- You will never know enough, and that's the job · Imposter syndrome in security isn't a character flaw; it's an accurate readout of an unbounded field, misfiled as a personal deficiency. The fix is a traversal strategy, not more knowledge.